You have now been introduced to the three major components of what may be called the real estate system: the space market, the asset market and the development industry.
中文
图示1-1呈现了该系统的直观概览,包括这三个主要组成部分中的主要元素和它们之间的联系。
📖 词汇解析
Introduced to 被介绍给,已经了解
Example *We were introduced to new concepts in class today.* 我们今天在课堂上学习了新概念。
Components 组成部分,组件
Example *The engine is a critical component of a car.* 发动机是汽车的关键部件。
What may be called 可以称为
Real estate system 房地产系统
Space Market Where tenants and landlords interact, determining rents and occupancy.
The exhibit also shows how this system is linked to other, exogenous systems, including the national and local macro-economies and the national and international capital markets.
中文
该图还展示了该系统如何连接到其他外部系统,包括国家和地方的宏观经济以及国内和国际资本市场。
📖 词汇解析
Also shows 还展示了
Linked to 连接到,与……相关
Exogenous systems 外部系统
Exogenous 来自外部的,外源的
Contrast with endogenous (内生的)
National and local macro-economies 国家和地方的宏观经济
Capital markets 资本市场
National and international 国内和国际的
The real estate market is influenced by interest rates set by national banks (an exogenous factor).
International capital flows can affect property investment levels in a country.
Let's briefly "walk through” the real estate system depicted in Exhibit 1-1.
中文
让我们简要地“走一遍”图示1-1中描绘的房地产系统。
📖 词汇解析
Briefly 简要地,简单地
Walk through 仔细查看,逐步讲解
Depicted 描绘的,描述的
Example *The painting depicts a serene landscape.* 这幅画描绘了一幅宁静的风景。
日本語
図表1-1に描かれた不動産システムを簡潔に見ていきましょう。
🔤 Key Words
Briefly|簡潔に
Walk through|見ていく
Depicted|描かれた
U1S2: The Real Estate System
5/44
English
The three large boxes in the exhibit represent the three main elements of the real estate system: the space market, the asset market and the development industry.
Within the space market, we see the interaction of usage demand with the current stock of physical space supply, which determines current rents and occupancy levels in the space market.
Underlying the demand side of the space market are the national and local economies, which determine the need for certain quantities of physical space of various types as a function of the cost (rent) for such space.
Governing the amount of physical space on the supply side are the past and current activities of the development industry.
中文
在供应方,决定物理空间数量的是开发行业的过去和当前活动。
📖 词汇解析
Governing 决定,支配
Example *Regulations governing exports have changed.* 管理出口的法规已发生变化。
Amount of physical space 物理空间的数量
Supply side 供应方
Past and current activities 过去和当前的活动
Development industry 开发行业
Supply Side Factors
Development Activities Construction of new buildings, renovation, redevelopment.
Time Lag There's often a delay between development decisions and completion of projects.
Impact of Past Activities
Decisions made years ago affect current supply due to the long development process.
供应方因素:
开发活动:新建筑的建造、翻新、再开发。
时间滞后:开发决策与项目完成之间通常存在延迟。
过去活动的影响:
由于开发过程漫长,多年前做出的决策会影响当前的供应。
日本語
供給側の物理的スペースの量を規定しているのは、開発業界の過去および現在の活動です。
🔤 Key Words
Governing|支配する
Supply side|供給側
Activities|活動
U1S2: The Real Estate System
9/44
English
Moving down to the asset market, we see that the space market determines the current operating cash flows produced by the real estate assets, which are the fundamental subjects of the asset market.
This operating cash flow interacts with the cap rates required by investors to determine current property market values in the asset market.
中文
主语(This operating cash flow)+ 谓语(interacts)+ 宾语(with the cap rates required by investors)+ 目的状语(to determine current property market values in the asset market)。
Both the supply and demand sides of the real estate asset market consist of investors, those currently on the “buy” side and those currently on the “sell” side, either in general or for specific assets.
Investors’ desires and perceptions about the investment risks and returns of real estate assets, as compared to other types of investment opportunities available elsewhere in the capital markets, determine the current market cap rates investors require in real estate deals.
A key determinant of cap rates is also investors’ forecasts about the future of the relevant space market, on both the demand and supply sides, so as to predict the likely future course of rents.
中文
另一个关键决定因素是投资者对相关细分市场未来的供需预测,这些预测将用于推断租金可能的未来走势。
📖 词汇解析
Determinant 决定因素
Forecasts 预测
Future course of rents 租金未来走势
日本語
キャップレートの重要な決定要因は、関連するスペース市場の将来に関する投資家の予測でもあります。
🔤 Key Words
Determinant|決定要因
Forecasts|予測
Future course of rents|賃料の将来動向
U1S2: The Real Estate System
15/44
English
Thus, we see how the space and asset markets, reflecting the underlying economic base and the capital markets, interact to produce current real estate asset market values.
Within the development-industry component of the system, a crucial comparison is made.
中文
在系统的开发行业的构成中,进行了一个关键的比较。
📖 词汇解析
Development-industry component 开发行业组成部分
Crucial comparison 关键比较
Made 进行
日本語
システムの開発業界構成要素の中で、重要な比較が行われます。
🔤 Key Words
Development-industry component|開発業界の構成要素
Crucial comparison|重要な比較
Made|行われる
U1S2: The Real Estate System
18/44
English
Current development costs, including construction and land costs (incorporating necessary profit for the developer), are compared against current asset values.
中文
当前的开发成本,包括施工和土地成本(包含对开发商的必要利润),与当前的资产价值进行比较。
📖 词汇解析
Development costs 开发成本
Construction and land costs 建造和土地成本
Asset values 资产价值
日本語
建設費と土地費(開発者に必要な利益を含む)を含む現在の開発コストが、現在の資産価値と比較されます。
🔤 Key Words
Development costs|開発コスト
Construction and land costs|建設費と土地費
Asset values|資産価値
U1S2: The Real Estate System
19/44
English
If asset values equal or exceed development costs, then development will proceed, thereby adding to the physical stock on the supply side of the space market.
A key component of development costs is the opportunity value of the land (including all site acquisition costs).
中文
开发成本的一个关键组成部分是土地的机会价值(包括所有的土地收购成本)。
📖 词汇解析
Opportunity value 机会价值
Land 土地
Site acquisition costs 场地购置成本
日本語
開発コストの重要な構成要素は、土地の機会価値(すべてのサイト取得費を含む)です。
🔤 Key Words
Opportunity value|機会価値
Land|土地
Site acquisition costs|用地取得費用
U1S2: The Real Estate System
21/44
English
This opportunity value is determined in the real estate asset market, as land is a type of real estate asset.
中文
这个机会价值是在房地产资产市场中确定的,因为土地是一种房地产资产。
📖 词汇解析
Opportunity value 机会价值
Real estate asset market 房地产资产市场
Determined 决定
日本語
この機会価値は不動産アセット市場で決定され、土地は不動産資産の一種であるからです。
🔤 Key Words
Opportunity value|機会価値
Real estate asset market|不動産資産市場
Determined|決定される
U1S2: The Real Estate System
22/44
English
Of course, development takes time, and this requires that the development industry be somewhat forward-looking.
中文
当然,开发需要时间,这要求开发行业要有一定的前瞻性。
📖 词汇解析
Development takes time 开发需要时间
Forward-looking 前瞻性
Requires 要求
日本語
もちろん、開発には時間がかかり、これにより開発業界はある程度先見性を持つ必要があります。
🔤 Key Words
Development takes time|開発には時間がかかる
Forward-looking|先見性のある
Requires|要求する
U1S2: The Real Estate System
23/44
English
The developer succeeds only if the newly completed built property's value exceeds its total development cost at the time of completion of the project, which may take several years.
中文
只有当新完工的建筑物业的价值在项目完成时超过其总开发成本,开发商才能成功,这可能需要数年时间。
📖 词汇解析
Newly completed 新完工的
Built property 建成物业
Total development cost 总开发成本
日本語
開発者が成功するのは、新しく完成した建物の価値がその総開発コストを上回る場合のみです。
🔤 Key Words
Newly completed|新たに完成した
Built property|建物付き不動産
Total development cost|総開発コスト
U1S2: The Real Estate System
24/44
English
Indeed, the real estate system depicted in Exhibit 1-1 is, in principle, forward-looking to varying degrees in several aspects of the system.
Not only must developers be forward looking to account for construction time, but the space market is also forward-looking in that many users of space require long-term planning for their space needs and much space is rented out under long-term leases lasting typically from two to ten years.
Asset market participants are inherently forward-looking.
中文
资产市场的参与者本质上是前瞻性的。
📖 词汇解析
Asset market participants 资产市场参与者
Inherently 本质上
Forward-looking 前瞻性
日本語
アセット市場の参加者は本質的に先見性を持っています。
🔤 Key Words
Asset market participants|資産市場参加者
Inherently|本質的に
Forward-looking|先見性のある
U1S2: The Real Estate System
28/44
English
Investors make or lose money depending on how their investments do subsequent to their purchase.
中文
投资者根据其投资在购买后的表现来赚取或亏损资金。
📖 词汇解析
Make or lose money 赚钱或亏损
Subsequent to 在……之后
Purchase 购买
日本語
投資家は、購入後の投資の成績に応じて利益を得たり損失を被ったりします。
🔤 Key Words
Make or lose money|利益を得るか損失を出す
Subsequent to|~に続いて
Purchase|購入
U1S2: The Real Estate System
29/44
English
Even when an investor sells relatively quickly to another investor, the price the second investor is willing to pay depends on her perception about the future.
Fundamentally, when you “unfold” each subsequent sale transaction of a given asset, you realize that the present value of the asset depends ultimately on the entire future stream of cash flow the asset can generate into the infinite future.
To forecast future income streams from the real estate assets they are holding or considering buying, investors must forecast both the local economic base underlying the demand side of the space market and the activity of the development industry on the supply side of the space market.
They must also attempt to forecast capital-market and national macroeconomic factors, such as interest rates, inflation, and investor preferences, all of which affect the opportunity cost of capital and therefore the future values of assets.
The principal negative feedback loop in the real estate system is the ability of the asset market to regulate the flow of financial capital to the development industry.
If either supply or demand threaten to get out of balance in the space market, the resulting effect on assets’ operating cash flows will trigger a pricing response in the asset market.
For example, if new development threatens excess supply in the space market, investors will expect lower future rents, which will cause a reduction in property market asset values today.
If this reduction is sufficient, it will make additional development unprofitable.
中文
如果这种下降足够显著,它将使额外的开发无利可图。
📖 词汇解析
Sufficient 足够的
Additional development 额外开发
Unprofitable 无利可图
日本語
この削減が十分であれば、追加の開発は採算が合わなくなります。
🔤 Key Words
Sufficient|十分な
Additional development|追加開発
Unprofitable|非収益的
U1S2: The Real Estate System
40/44
English
This new development will eventually service the growth in demand and bring rents down to their long-run equilibrium level.
中文
这种新开发最终将满足需求的增长,并使租金回落到其长期均衡水平。
📖 词汇解析
Service the growth 满足增长
Long-run equilibrium 长期均衡
Bring rents down 降低租金
日本語
この新規開発は最終的に需要の増加に対応し、賃料を供給と需要が釣り合う水準まで引き下げます。
🔤 Key Words
Service the growth|成長に対応する
Long-run equilibrium|長期均衡
Bring rents down|賃料を引き下げる
U1S2: The Real Estate System
39/44
English
On the other hand, if usage demand for space grows without addition of supply, occupancy and rents will be pushed up in the space market, increasing current cash flow in the asset market and pushing up prices there until new development is triggered.
If the participants in the system are sufficiently forward-looking and quick in their reactions, the negative feedback loop in the real estate system can keep built space supply and demand in pretty good balance most of the time.
Of course, the real estate system has not always operated exactly like a well-oiled machine in this regard.
中文
当然,在这方面,房地产系统并不总是像一台润滑良好的机器一样运转。
📖 词汇解析
Well-oiled machine 润滑良好的机器
In this regard 在这方面
Operated exactly like 运转得像
日本語
もちろん、不動産システムは常に潤滑油の行き届いた機械のように正確に機能していたわけではありません。
🔤 Key Words
Well-oiled machine|よく油を差した機械
In this regard|この点において
Operated exactly like|まさに~のように機能する
U1S2: The Real Estate System
43/44
English
Commercial property markets have been subject to pronounced boom and bust cycles.
中文
商业地产市场经历了明显的繁荣和萧条周期。
📖 词汇解析
Boom and bust cycles 繁荣与萧条周期
Subject to 受制于
Pronounced 明显的
日本語
商業用不動産市場は顕著な好況と不況のサイクルにさらされてきました。
🔤 Key Words
Boom and bust cycles|景気と不況のサイクル
Subject to|~の影響を受ける
Pronounced|顕著な
U1S2: The Real Estate System
44/44
English
However, during the 1990s, improvements in asset market efficiency, related to the increased role of the more informationally efficient public capital markets, gave hope that the system may work better in the future.